THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(5) Boise State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at Louisiana Tech (3-5, 4-3 ATS)
The Broncos will try to remain on track for BCS bowl consideration when they travel to Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, La., for a Western Athletic Conference matchup with Louisiana Tech.
Fifth-ranked Boise State and sixth-ranked TCU – both undefeated squads from non-BCS conferences – are battling for an at-large berth to BCS bowl game, so even if the Broncos avoid an upset over their final five games, there’s no guarantee they’ll qualify for one of college football’s marquee postseason contests. The Broncos (3-0 SU and ATS in the WAC) trail Nevada by half a game coming into tonight, while Louisiana Tech sits in fifth at 2-3 (3-2 ATS).
Boise State has outscored its opponents 99-16 in the last two weeks, winning 54-9 in Hawaii on Oct. 24 and cashing as a 25-point favorite, and then stomping San Jose State 45-7 on Saturday, narrowly covering as a 36½-point chalk. The Broncos are third in the country in scoring, putting up 41 points a game, while ranking 11th defensively in points allowed (13.6 ppg) and rushing yards allowed (97.9 ypg). Sophomore QB Kellen Moore leads the offense, completing an amazing 67 percent of his throws for 1,905 yards, 24 TDs and just two INTs.
The Bulldogs have dropped two straight heartbreakers, falling 23-21 at Utah State on Oct. 24 as a 1½-point underdog, then losing at Idaho on Saturday 35-34, but cashing as a three-point underdog. Louisiana Tech has trouble defensively, allowing 23.8 ppg and 181.9 rushing ypg overall, but those numbers have dropped to 21.7 ppg and 121.7 rushing ypg over the last three weeks. Also, the Bulldogs’ defense has been rock solid in three home games, yielding just 8.7 points, 238 total yards and 76 rushing yards per contest. Meanwhile, the offense puts up 40 points and 515.7 total yards per game (284 rushing ypg) at home.
Boise State has won seven straight in this rivalry, cashing in four of the last five, all as a favorite, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Louisiana Tech, as the home team has cashed in five of the last six. Last year in Boise, the Broncos rolled 38-3 as a 24-point home chalk.
Despite being heavy favorites in most of their games, the Broncos are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 18-6-1 overall, 12-3-1 in WAC games, 8-2 on the road (3-1 this year), 9-2 as a road favorite, 11-3 on Friday, 38-18-2 against teams with a losing record and 46-20-1 after a spread-cover. Louisiana Tech has alternated spread-covers in its last seven lined games and is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a ‘dog and 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 after a spread-cover. However, the Bulldogs are also on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 after a straight-up loss.
The Broncos have topped the total in four of five road games and four of five WAC contests, but the under has been the play in nine of Boise’s last 13 after a spread-cover and four straight on the road against teams with a losing record. The Bulldogs are on “over” runs of 5-2 at home, 5-1 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 in November and 4-2 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
NBA
Denver (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Miami (4-1 SU and ATS)
The Nuggets try to match their best start in franchise history – and continue their dominance of the Heat – when they resume their six-game Eastern Conference road trip with a stop at American Airlines Arena.
Denver exploded in the second half at New Jersey on Wednesday night, outscoring the Nets 72-43 to turn a 51-50 halftime deficit into a 122-94 win, easily covering as a nine-point road favorite. The Nuggets have started out 6-0 just once in team history, back in the 1985-86 season, and they come into tonight having scored more than 110 points in four of their five games, with four of the five wins being by nine points or more.
Miami rebounded from its first setback of the season – Tuesday’s 104-96 home loss to Phoenix – with a 93-89 upset of the Wizards as a two-point road pup on Wednesday. Since opening the season with a 115-83 rout of New York, Dwyane Wade and Co. have scored just 96, 95, 96 and 93 points in the past four games, but the defense has allowed 93 points or fewer in four of the team’s five contests, holding three opponents under 90.
This hasn’t been much of a rivalry lately, with the Nuggets winning eight consecutive meetings, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven. That includes four straight wins (3-1 ATS) in Miami. Last year, Denver rolled 108-97 as a 5½-point home favorite, then went to South Beach and clobbered the Heat 99-82 as a 1½-point chalk. Four of the Nuggets’ last five wins in this series were double-digit routs.
Although Denver is still only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against Eastern Conference foes, it is otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 24-8 overall, 13-3 on the road, 12-4 when playing on one day of rest, 11-3 after a SU victory and 8-1 when coming off a double-digit win. Meanwhile, in addition to cashing in four of its five games this season, Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 on Friday.
The under is on runs of 5-1 for the Nuggets on the road, 4-0 for the Heat overall, 5-1 for the Heat at home, 12-2 for the Heat after a victory and 5-0 for the Heat when playing on one day of rest. However, the over is 15-7 in Denver’s last 22 on Friday and 26-9-1 in Miami’s last 36 against Northwest Division opponents. Finally, seven of the last 10 in this series have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Phoenix (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at Boston (6-0, 4-2 ATS)
The Celtics return home with their perfect record intact as they entertain the Suns, who look to rebound from their first loss of the season as they continue a five-game Eastern Conference road swing.
Phoenix took a 4-0 record into Orlando on Wednesday, but was no match for the Magic, losing 122-100 as a 7½-point road underdog. After posting solid numbers to start the year, point guard Steve Nash was limited to just 12 points and four assists in 22 minutes, and the Suns’ defense was nonexistent, as the Magic shot 52.3 percent overall and 52.2 percent from three-point range. Wednesday’s loss snapped the Suns’ seven-game winning streak that dated to the end of last year’s regular season.
Boston kept pace with the Nuggets – the only remaining unbeaten teams in the league – by barely holding off the lowly Timberwolves 92-90 on Wednesday, coming up woefully short as a 10-point road chalk. The Celtics have been ridiculously tough on defense all year, holding all six opponents to 90 points or less while yielding just 81.5 ppg on 40.7 percent shooting. By comparison, the Suns give up 107.6 ppg on 47.1 percent shooting.
Phoenix won four straight against the Celtics from 2006-08 (going 2-2 ATS), but Boston has regained control of the rivalry with three straight double-digit wins (3-0 ATS). Last year, the Celtics cruised 104-87 as an 8½-point home favorite and 128-108 as a two-point road ‘dog. The visitor has cashed in nine of the last 12 meetings, with the Suns going 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Beantown.
Phoenix is on ATS runs of 5-1-1 on Friday, 8-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU defeat, but the Suns are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine against the Atlantic Division and 3-10-1 ATS as an underdog of five to 10½ points. Boston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 after a non-cover and 5-1 ATS in its last six on Friday, but 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite of five to 10½ points. Also, the Suns have alternated spread-covers in their five games this year, and Boston has done so in its last four contests.
The Suns are on “under” rolls of 7-3 overall, 5-1 on the road and 4-0 after an ATS setback, but the over is 4-1 in their last five against the Atlantic Division and 22-10 in their last 32 as a road underdog. Boston carries “under” streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 5-1 when playing after one day of rest, but the over is 5-0 in the Celtics’ last five Friday contests. Lastly, the over is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings between these teams and 6-2 in the last eight battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
San Antonio (2-2 SU and ATS) at Portland (2-3 SU and ATS)
The struggling Trail Blazers continue a three-game homestand when they welcome the Spurs to the Rose Garden for a Western Conference battle.
San Antonio came off a five-day layoff on Thursday and dropped a 113-99 decision at Utah as a one-point road favorite. The Jazz made 53 percent of their shot attempts in the win, and opponents are shooting 47.3 percent for the season against San Antonio. The Spurs have scored 113 points in each of their first two wins (both at home) while averaging 92 ppg in their two defeats (both on the road).
The Blazers are coming off Tuesday’s 97-91 loss to Atlanta as a seven-point home favorite, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games, including back-to-back upset defeats at the Rose Garden. Going back to last year’s first-round playoff series against the Rockets, Portland has held eight of nine opponents to 97 points or less, but offensively, Nate McMillan’s team has scored more than 96 points just once during that nine-game span, including tallying 88 or less five times.
Portland took three of four from the Spurs last year both SU and ATS, winning two home games by scores of 100-99 as a 2½-point underdog and 102-84 as a four-point chalk. Prior to last season, San Antonio had defeated the Blazers 12 consecutive times. Portland has covered in four of the last five meetings overall and four straight at the Rose Garden, and the host is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes.
Going back to last year, San Antonio is in ATS slumps of 1-5 on the highway, 2-6 against the Northwest Division, 2-6 as an underdog and 10-21 as a road pup of less than five points, but the Spurs have covered in four of their last five Friday outings. Portland has cashed in six straight on Friday, 15 of 22 against Western Conference foes, eight of 11 when going on two days’ rest, 15 of 22 as a favorite and seven of eight when laying less than five points.
The Spurs have topped the total in five of their last six overall and eight of their last 10, and the over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 against the Northwest Division and 8-3-1 in their last 12 as an underdog. However, the under is 4-2 in San Antonio’s last six on the road and 5-1 in itss last six when playing on back-to-back nights. Portland is riding “under” streaks of 8-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-1 as a favorite, 4-0 as a home chalk and 5-1 versus Southwest Division opponents. However, the Spurs and Blazers have hurdled the total in six of their last nine meetings overall and four of their last five clashes at the Rose Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
<!-- / message --> <!-- / message -->
